Washington State Governor’s Race Scandal
Abstract
This presentation applies exploratory data analysis and machine learning to the 2024 Washington State gubernatorial campaign finance dataset — comprising over 6.3 million donation records spanning 2007–2026 — to investigate patterns of potential donation fraud among current and past candidates.
Using probability distribution analysis, Benford's Law, and the Kruskal-Wallis non-parametric statistical test, the researcher examines the donation structures of candidates including Jay Inslee, Bob Ferguson, Rob McKenna, and 2024 candidates Semi Bird and Dave Reichert. The analysis finds that Bird and Reichert's donation distributions are statistically identical with approximately 95% certainty — an anomaly unique in the known history of Washington State gubernatorial races.
Further investigation reveals additional red flags: abnormally high ratios of funds classified as "SMALL CONTRIBUTIONS" (16% for Bird, 24% for Reichert, compared to under 7% for all other candidates), donations clustered into rigid tiers inconsistent with natural donor behavior, evidence of Benford’s Law or "tail stuffing" in distribution curves, and duplicate maximum-amount donations traced to suspicious donor addresses.
The presentation concludes that both the Bird and Reichert campaigns were set up using the same accounting framework, suggesting a shared financial architect, and that the patterns identified constitute strong statistical evidence of reckless or fraudulent campaign finance practices. Which further implies, that whom ever financed Reichert also financed Bird.
Ending speculations
Reichert entered the race not as the GOP endorsed candidate and he got a higher proportion of the same funds; While the endorsed candidate, Bird, received a smaller proportion. Additionally, the blatant Benford’s Law violations scream of Governor Fergusson’s handy-work; Before Bob Fergusson was a Governor, he was the State Attorney General, whom is in charge of investigating Washington State campaign finance fraud. The fix was his “two aces in the hole” in the event he lost the election, he could hold them accountable for Benford’s Law. Despite loosing, both Riechert and Bird are winners of a small lottery from a super pac; Most likely a democrat one.
